Augle Deliberation Index
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Search and filter every deliberation session · Illustrative data
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Showing 47 of 247 sessions · Illustrative data
Life sciences
Is statin therapy effective for reducing LDL cholesterol?
Established97%
2w ago
Climate
Does greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels contribute to atmospheric CO2 increase?
Established97%
2w ago
Climate
Is the global average temperature rising due to human activity?
Established98%
1w ago
Life sciences
Does aspirin reduce cardiovascular risk in secondary prevention populations?
Established94%
1w ago
Economics
Does compound interest growth outpace simple interest over 10+ years?
Established96%
5d ago
Finance
Does diversification reduce portfolio volatility across asset classes?
Established94%
1w ago
Economics
Does aspirin reduce cardiovascular events in primary prevention?
Established91%
3d ago
Policy
Does raising the minimum wage increase employment costs for small businesses?
Established88%
1w ago
Technology
Does transformer scaling improve performance when training compute is doubled?
Established91%
2w ago
Life sciences
What does the evidence establish about GLP-1 agonists for cardiovascular risk reduction in adults with obesity?
Probable83%
14h ago
Policy
What does the evidence establish about the earnings effects of active labour-market programmes?
Probable78%
4h ago
Technology
Does the benchmark evidence support current LLM claims of human-level performance on standardised reasoning tasks?
Probable74%
2d ago
Policy
What does the evidence establish about the distributional effects of carbon border adjustment mechanisms?
Probable72%
1d ago
Economics
What does the evidence establish about the pass-through of monetary tightening to core inflation?
Probable71%
10h ago
Climate
What does the evidence establish about the grid-integration limits of variable renewable generation?
Probable64%
5d ago
Economics
What does the evidence establish about the real effects of central-bank forward guidance?
Probable64%
1d ago
Finance
What does the historical evidence establish about equity-return predictability at the one-year horizon?
Probable67%
12h ago
Geopolitics
What does the open-source evidence establish about escalation dynamics in protracted regional conflicts?
Probable61%
6h ago
Policy
What does the evidence establish about the emissions effectiveness of carbon pricing relative to standards?
Probable61%
3d ago
AI governance
What does the evidence establish about the enforceability of risk-tiered AI regulation?
Probable68%
2d ago
Life sciences
Does metformin extend healthy lifespan in non-diabetic populations?
Probable58%
2d ago
Geopolitics
What does the evidence establish about the drivers of long-run comparative economic growth?
Probable54%
4d ago
AI governance
What does the evidence establish about the effectiveness of binding vs. voluntary AI safety commitments?
Probable54%
4d ago
Geopolitics
What does the evidence establish about the security effects of defensive-alliance expansion?
Probable48%
3d ago
Finance
Does the evidence support the claim that current AI-infrastructure investment reflects a capital misallocation?
Contested44%
5h ago
Climate
Does the evidence support carbon capture and storage as an economically viable mitigation pathway at scale?
Contested42%
4d ago
Technology
Do current benchmarks provide a valid construct for claims of general machine intelligence?
Contested41%
6h ago
AI governance
Will AI safety become the primary concern of frontier labs by 2028?
Contested36%
3d ago
Geopolitics
What does the open-source evidence establish about deterrence stability in the Taiwan Strait?
Contested34%
1d ago
Economics
Does the current evidence base support a near-term US recession call, and where is it weakest?
Contested62%
2h ago
Policy
What does the evidence establish about the effect of federal AI regulation on innovation outcomes?
Contested29%
8h ago
Finance
Does the evidence support treating crypto-asset market capitalisation as a measure of adoption?
Contested38%
2d ago
Policy
What does the evidence establish about the emissions impact of re-entry into international climate agreements?
Contested44%
5d ago
AI governance
Does the evidence support pre-market approval as a governance model for frontier AI?
Contested29%
8h ago
Technology
What does the evidence establish about AI-driven displacement of knowledge-work tasks?
Contested38%
1d ago
Life sciences
Does the GLP-1 evidence support long-term weight maintenance without continued dosing?
Contested24%
2d ago
Technology
Does the current evidence support claims of practical quantum advantage over classical methods?
Contested58%
3d ago
Economics
What does the evidence establish about the relative near-term growth trajectories of the EU and US economies?
Gap18%
3d ago
Finance
What is the optimal portfolio allocation for a 30-year investment horizon?
Gap11%
3d ago
Geopolitics
What does the evidence establish about the conditions under which strategic-competitor relations shift toward cooperation?
Gap11%
5d ago
Technology
What is the optimal AI governance framework for superintelligent systems?
Gap7%
6d ago
Technology
When will brain-computer interfaces become consumer products?
Gap14%
4d ago
Climate
What is the optimal geoengineering intervention for stabilizing global temperature?
Gap9%
6d ago
AI governance
What is the correct regulatory framework for general-purpose AI?
Gap8%
5d ago
Life sciences
What is the optimal microbiome composition for metabolic health?
Gap9%
4d ago
Policy
What is the optimal global immigration policy framework?
Gap8%
1w ago
Economics
What is the economically optimal global carbon price?
Gap12%
1w ago